000
AXNT20 KNHC 030550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT MON MAY 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N25W 4N38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL 
NEAR 2N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 
48W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ELSEWHERE... 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 1W-6W 
AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 13W-26W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 03/0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF 
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY S-SW ALONG 
25N93W INTO A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N94W. THE FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM THE LOW TO 19N95W AND INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 
VERACRUZ. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND 
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ARE GENERATING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG EAST OF THE 
FRONT TO 85W WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING UP TO 25 KT AS 
OBSERVED ON RECENT SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. 
WEST OF THE FRONT...LIGHT NE TO E WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST 
AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE NW GULF WATERS THROUGH 
LATE TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 73W DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE FILTRATES TO THE LOW-LEVELS 
OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED 
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG E TO SE TRADES UP 
TO 25 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS CAPTURED 
BY A 03/0222 UTC ASCAT PASS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH 
AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 22N60W TO 18N70W TO 
14N75W. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN DRAPED 
ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA 
AS CONVERGENT NE AND E WINDS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 60W-72W ARE 
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ON FRESH TRADES 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N65W 
PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 22N W OF 60W. UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGHING LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 30W-50W 
REMAINING LARGELY N OF 27N SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N35W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N40W TO 
20N60W AND ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AS A WEAKENING SURFACE 
TROUGH TO HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 30N50W 
TO22N60W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N41W TO 
28N46W THEN WESTWARD TO 29N58W. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SE 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 35N22W TO 22N34W. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT E OF 14W 
TO THE MOROCCO COAST STRETCHING NORTHWARD TO THE PORTUGAL COAST 
NORTH OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN