000 AXNT20 KNHC 022329 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N24W 4N32W 4N46W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 47W FROM 2N-8N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 48W-50W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W... AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 17W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 28W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 29N93W 24N95W 21N95W 19N95W. A 1004 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE FRONT AT 21N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-29N E OF THE FRONT TO 90W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE GULF LOW AND THE 1024 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W THUS 20-30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF 90W HAS 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. SMOKE AND HAZE ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF MOVING N. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PREFRONTAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FROM 29N TO BEYOND 34N BETWEEN 88W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N85W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 88W-94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM ALABAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT TO N FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE N COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-75W. ELSEWHERE... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 20N60W 18N66W 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 71W-73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA S OF 10N W OF 70W. MORE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA DUE TO THE ITCZ... AND FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NEARLY STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N67W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N36W TO NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 26N40W 21N50W DISSIPATING TO 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO 30N50W 32N58W MOVING SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 31N TO 36N BETWEEN 39W AND 53W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N BETWEEN 35W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 10N E OF 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 7N22W. EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E TO 32N29W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA