000 AXNT20 KNHC 021806 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1600 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N07W 2N24W 4N32W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 46W FROM 3N-9N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE WESTERNMOST GULF OF MEXICO ATTACHED TO A 999 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 21N97W. SURFACE WINDS ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE CURRENTLY...AS SHOWN BY SEVERAL BUOYS AND THE 1512 UTC ASCAT PASS. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK TROUGH IS FOUND FROM THE LOW SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF...AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES OF THE US WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THIS IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY FROM THE POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES. WHILE THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY FILL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW DAMPEN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO RESUME IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF REACHING A MAX OF 110 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET CORE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. CARIBBEAN SEA... AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN RANGING FROM 10-15 KT EASTERLIES NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES UP TO 25 KT SOUTHEASTERLIES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. RAINFALL WITH SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ...PRIMARILY FROM LOW-TOPPED CLOUDINESS...ARE BEING PRODUCED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS THE WESTERNMOST EXTENSION OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH DISSIPATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 21N84W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE A CYCLONIC TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 11N76W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CONTINUING FARTHER TO THE NE IN THE ATLANTIC. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS NEAR PUERTO RICO...THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TYPICAL SUBSIDENT...DRY FLOW ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE DOMINATED BY A LARGE AND MODERATE HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB NEAR 29N65W. MOST OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC HAS WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT...RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N36W SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N50W...AT WHICH POINT IT IS ANALYZED A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 19N60W. FROM THERE...THE FEATURE IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BEING PRODUCED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT/TROUGH AXIS. FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT IS RATHER WEAK AND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN DISSIPATE. A NEW COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 45W AND 55W...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH SOUTH OF 25N IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 3N-9N ALONG 46W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AS IT HAS MOVED SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST DURING OVER THE LAST DAY. THERE MAY BE A SECOND TROUGH...PERHAPS AN AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE...NEAR 25W BETWEEN 2 AND 12N...THOUGH THE EVIDENCE WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD THIS FEATURE TO THE SURFACE MAP. ALOFT...WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF A DEEP CYCLONE NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE FLOW IS SUBSIDENT AND DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EAST OF 40W SOUTH OF 12N...WHICH IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM THE ITCZ AND SOUTH AMERICA OFF TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA