000 AXNT20 KNHC 021032 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 5N34W 4N42W 2N45W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 45W FROM 3N-10N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 43W-47W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 17W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N66W AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MEXICO ANALYZED AS A 998 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST NEAR 23N98W AND A COLD FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF FROM MATAGORDA BAY TO NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF REACHING UP TO 25 KT THIS MORNING AS OBSERVED BY NUMEROUS SHIP...BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL RIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS WELL AS A 02/0246 ASCAT PASS. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 20 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF W THE FRONT AND N OF 22N THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY MONDAY. ALOFT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N85W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD TO NORTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING OVERALL STABILITY ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 22N85W AND ENCOMPASSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES. HOWEVER...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM WESTERN PANAMA N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT SPREADS WESTWARD FROM PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. ELSEWHERE...LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED WESTWARD OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN RIDING FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N E OF 67W AND OVER AREAS SURROUNDING PUERTO RICO N OF 17N E OF 69W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N66W PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF 20N BETWEEN 53W-68W DUE TO CONVERGENT NE AND E WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH AND SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LARGELY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N36W CONTINUING SW TO 25N43W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 20N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 35W-55W REMAINING N OF 30N AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 32N45W TO 24N66W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER E OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE MOROCCO COAST N OF 28N E OF 16W THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN