000 AXNT20 KNHC 020550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 5N17W 6N23W 2N34W 4N41W 3N44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 43W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-44W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-15W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N64W AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO ANALYZED AS A 994 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE COAST NEAR 23N98W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER THE GULF IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF REACHING 25 KT AS OBSERVED BY NUMEROUS SHIP...BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL RIGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. BY EARLY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE SE TEXAS GULF COAST IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS INTRODUCING 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W THE FRONT N OF 22N. ALOFT...AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N96W TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD TO NORTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING OVERALL STABILITY ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N86W AND ENCOMPASSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM COASTAL PANAMA NW ACROSS COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA TO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N92W. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED WESTWARD OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN RIDING FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 72W-78W AND FROM 14N-18N E OF 66W. OTHER AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE NORTHERN COAST AND OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N64W PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W DUE TO CONVERGENT NE AND E WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH AND SW NORTH ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LARGELY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N37W CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N44W TO 20N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 32W-57W REMAINING N OF 30N AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 30N50W TO 23N68W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AN EARLIER 01/2142 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURING NE WINDS TO 25 KT NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN