000 AXNT20 KNHC 012325 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N15W 6N25W 2N35W 5N42W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 42W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 38W-41W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 5W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 15W-21W... FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 28W-31W...AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 34W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W PRODUCING SURFACE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 996 MB LOW CENTERED OVER N MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. 25-30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 88W-93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER E TEXAS ...NOW WITHIN 60 NM OF CORPUS CHRISTIE DRIFTING E. SMOKE AND HAZE ARE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF MOVING N. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NO RAIN OR CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N89W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 71W-76W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 67W. RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER AND N OF THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 26N43W 20N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N22W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 29N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-70W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 20W-35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 20W. EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E TO 32N34W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA