000 AXNT20 KNHC 011731 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAY 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 4N42W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 41W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-42W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 8W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 16W-18W...FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 24W-27W...AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 30W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W PRODUCING SURFACE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 995 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. 25-30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 88W-93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS OVER E TEXAS...NOW WITHIN 60 NM OF CORPUS CHRISTIE MOVING SLOWLY E. SMOKE AND HAZE IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF MOVING N. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NO RAIN OR CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS E OF THE FRONT. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-17N E OF 73W. RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL N OF THE ISLAND. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS N OF PUERTO RICO TO MOVE S OVER THE ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W TO N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 23N50W 20N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N22W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 27N33W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-70W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 20W-35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 20W. EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E TO 32N35W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA