000 AXNT20 KNHC 011148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAY 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N27W 2N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S46W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 41W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 37W-45W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 18W-29W AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 29W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N64W AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ANALYZED AS A 995 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N101W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF REACHING 30 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTRODUCING 15 TO 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W THE FRONT N OF 22N. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND REACHES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND AS FAR NORTH AS ONTARIO CANADA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING OVERALL STABILITY OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN STEMMING FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 17N89W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TO 13N78W THEN EASTWARD ALONG 13N INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 14N40W. THIS IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND OVERALL STABILITY TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM COASTAL PANAMA NW ACROSS NICARAGUA AND WESTWARD OVER EL SALVADOR AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN RIDING FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N E OF 72W. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE POINT 19N75W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N64W PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OFF THE NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA COAST FROM 29N-32N W OF 78W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LARGELY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N40W CONTINUING SW TO 26N46W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 20N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 30W-60W REMAINING N OF 28N. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N25W IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER E OF THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN