000 AXNT20 KNHC 010551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAY 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N25W AND INTO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-36W AND WITHIN 200 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N66W AND AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ANALYZED AS A 991 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N103W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL GULF REACHING 30 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTRODUCING 15 TO 20 KT N TO NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W THE FRONT N OF 22N. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND REACHES NORTHERN FLORIDA AND AS FAR NORTH AS ONTARIO CANADA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT PROMOTING OVERALL STABILITY OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 81W-87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN STEMMING FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N90W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 14N INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 15N44W. THIS IS PROVIDING PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND OVERALL STABILITY TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM WESTERN PANAMA NW TO HONDURAS MAINLY W OF 81W. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. LOW-LEVEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED WESTWARD RIDING FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-16N E OF 68W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N66W PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OFF THE NE FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA COAST FROM 29N-32N W OF 80W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS LARGELY SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W CONTINUING ALONG 25N50W TO 20N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WHILE EAST OF THE FRONT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 32W-37W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC BETWEEN 35W-65W REMAINING N OF 25N. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N27W IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 30W AND S OF 25N E OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN