000 AXNT20 KNHC 301749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI APR 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N10W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4.5N30W 4N40W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF COTE D'VOIRE...CONTINUING ALONG COASTS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W AND 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 28W AND 34W. ELSEWHERE WEST OF 34W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR SUPPRESSING ANY AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH THE STRONGEST EFFECT SOUTH OF 27W. THE DRY STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. IN THE MEAN TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGS BY THE FAR NORTHERN GULF COAST PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...LINKED TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BASIN WEST OF 75W SOUTH OF 16N. FURTHERMORE...PART OF THE ITCZ IS OVER NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA...AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF THESE COUNTRIES INCLUDING NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NEAR 29N67W. FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 32N43W 25N50W 22N60W BECOMING A STATIONARY THROUGH 21N68W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SWINGS BY THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN REGION. THE STRONGEST AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR 37N25W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA