000 AXNT20 KNHC 300002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU APR 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N30W 3N40W TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 7W-12W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE NW GULF W OF 90W WHERE 15-20 KT SW WINDS ARE NOTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10 KT SW SURFACE FLOW. SMOKE IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N BETWEEN 90W-97W MOVING NW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF NEAR 26N88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF AND ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-86W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF TO MOVE N TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 20N74W 22N80W 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH MOVING N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 76W-79W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 82W-86W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 90W-93W. RADAR IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND HISPANIOLA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA TO THE HIGH CENTER TO GUADELOUPE. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND E CUBA...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W TO N OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 24N60W 21N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N31W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N44W. IN THE TROPICS...A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 56W-60W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-65W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN 30W-40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA