000 AXNT20 KNHC 281746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED APR 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1740 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED FROM FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 5.5N10W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 10W...INCLUDING SOUTHERN LIBERIA. ELSEWHERE WEST OF 10W...WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC ADVECTING ACROSS THE GULF. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BASIN SOUTH OF 23N...GENERATING SOME WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST BASIN...FUELING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES CENTRAL CUBA AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR CANCUN. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED EASTWARD BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PART OF THE ITCZ ENTERS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE BASIN ALONG 9N76W 10N80W 9.5N83W...AFFECTING THE WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION IN THIS REGION THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ANALYZED FROM 30N63W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 25N70W CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THIS STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED BY A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 140 NM WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF 55W. HOWEVER...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM OF A LINE THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N18W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N25W 23N34W 22N42W 15N48W. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE WESTERN COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA