000 AXNT20 KNHC 280535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W TO 5N16W TO 5N27W 3N40W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 7W AND 14W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 18W AND 22W...AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W... BROAD AND GENTLE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW... THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AND/OR ALREADY IS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN MEXICO ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ARE ON THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 31N60W TO 25N66W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 26N70W... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 26N TO CENTRAL CUBA...BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING TO WESTERN CUBA...LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...AND THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N. SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AROUND A RIDGE THAT GOES FROM 23N81W 26N90W...BEYOND A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N94W. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA IN AN AREA OF DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR WITH HEIGHT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W EASTWARD... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 29N26W TO 17N34W TO 10N47W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT GOES FROM 31N23W TO 25N30W TO 23N36W TO 16N44W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N20W TO 25N30W 23N37W 17N44W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N36W TO 27N48W 23N54W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT