000 AXNT20 KNHC 272338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE APR 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W ALONG 6N20W 4N30W 3N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 15W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID AND LOW-LEVEL DRY AND STABLE AIR. MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE BASIN DRAWING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW GULF SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OVER THE ERN CONUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 2100 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS NRN FLORIDA FROM N OF JACKSONVILLE TO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA CONTINUING TO NEAR 27N90W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER LAND. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS A SECOND SURGE OF ENERGY SHOULD MOVE SWIFTLY ACROSS NRN FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD BEHIND IT ACROSS THE NW GULF EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS KEEPING MUCH OF THE BASIN UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO LINE THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WRN CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A CLUSTER OF STRONGER SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 86W-88W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ WHICH CROSSES OVER COSTA RICO INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR E PACIFIC AND SW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IMPACTS THE WRN ATLC THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W ALONG 28N74W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO W CUBA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 56W-65W. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DISSIPATE AS A SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 34N38W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 32N23W 24N32W 15N44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO NEAR 45N38W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/E ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 5N51W SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOST LIKELY ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE ATLC ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON