000 AXNT20 KNHC 262316 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON APR 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED FROM CENTRAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 21W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS S OF 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N81W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR FORT MYERS AT 26N82W CONTINUING OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N84W 22N88W. MOST OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOW E OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL EVIDENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF 26N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WRN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1010 MB HIGH SE OF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 26N94W. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND ACROSS THE ERN GULF SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR. EXPECT A SECONDARY FRONT TO PUSH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS ACROSS WRN CUBA ALONG 26N78W 23N81W 22N83W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N86W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND 45 NM NW OF THE LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N79W ACROSS PANAMA TO NEAR 8N79W. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E PACIFIC ALONG 87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN CONUS REACHES THE WRN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS W CUBA. MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE...AS WELL AS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT LINES THE SE UNITED STATES COASTLINE CROSSING N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO WRN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD...AND WITHIN 45 NM BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FARTHER N OF THE SQUALL LINE N OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-75W. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN CONUS AND OVER THE FAR W ATLC. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD BEHIND THE SYSTEM KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 60W SUPPORTED THE SURFACE RIDGE. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W ALONG 27N31W 22N37W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NEAR 20N42W AND DISSIPATING TO NEAR 19N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 15N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA