000 AXNT20 KNHC 252358 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 3N23W 2N44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 27W-32W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 37W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 25/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION NEAR 30N85W TO 28N89W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N84W IN THE NE GULF TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 27N E OF 85W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 24N E OF 89W WITHIN SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NE AND CENTRAL GULF. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 95W IN THE WESTERN GULF. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS CLIPPING THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF AND IS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. SOUTH OF THIS TROUGHING...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF TO NEAR 25N92W PROVIDING FOR CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N73W THAT IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL UPPER LEVEL STABILITY W OF 66W. AT THE SURFACE...E TO SE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION TO NOTE THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 78W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INLAND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND WESTERN HONDURAS. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 20N52W TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS TO 17N65W IN THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 72W IN THE W ATLC...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND COASTAL WATERS N OF 28N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS CONTROLLED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N64W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND CONTINUES S-SW TO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 20N52W AND THEN TO THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA. IT SUPPORTS A SERIES OF FRONTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALL CONNECTED TO SEPARATE PARENT SURFACE LOWS N OF THE AREA. THE LEADING BOUNDARY FARTHEST EAST IS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM 31N36W TO 20N50W TO ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 22N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 22N. THE SECOND FRONT IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N39W TO 23N50W TO 22N60W. THIS FRONT REMAINS LARGELY IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO THE EAST. FINALLY...A THIRD COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N43W TO 28N52W AND EXHIBITS A STRONGER WIND FIELD TO THE NW. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT WITH A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS W OF THE FRONT AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W TO 20N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN