000 AXNT20 KNHC 251143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 2N21W 3N45W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 7W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 12W-42W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 46W-56W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NW OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S LOUISIANA TO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE GULF WATERS OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR NEW ORLEANS ALONG 25N92W TO OFF THE COAST NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO. A WEAK 1009 MB HIGH IS W OF THE TROUGH NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG A LINE FROM 27N88W TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY WIDENING TO WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM ACROSS FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO NEAR COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA. A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SW UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N96W TO 28N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE NW GULF CLEARING THIS MORNING W OF A LINE FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO JUST N OF TAMPICO MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS OVER SOUTH AMERICA OFF COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W NW TO CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO OFF THE E COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 17N64W GENERATING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N E OF 72W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS AND THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO GIVE THE CARIBBEAN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN MAINLY S OF 10N W OF 75W AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA NEAR 29N69W. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITHIN 300/400 NM OF LINE THROUGH 32N48W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING SW TO 21N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING TO OVER THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N64W. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT IS TO THE W ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N43W TO 26N54W DISSIPATING TO 25N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF OF BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N32W EXTENDS AN AXIS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N52W AND A SECOND N TO BEYOND 32N28W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 21N48W TO BEYOND 32N31W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE