000
AXNT20 KNHC 241757
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT SAT APR 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1750 UTC...

...ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W EQ30W 1N40W EQ50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NORTH AND 100 NM 
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK MOVING 
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONTINENTAL US SUPPORTING AN UPPER 
LEVEL LONGWAVE THAT IS FEEDING A SURFACE 996 MB LOW OVER 
ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FROM 
THE LOW CENTER ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE WESTERN 
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N93W AND CONTINUES TO EXTEND THE SAME 
DIRECTION TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
DEVELOPING WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS 
PROGRESSING FAIRLY QUICK. AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE IS FOUND 
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22N INCLUDING THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THIS REGION FROM 
22N96W SOUTHEASTWARD TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. NO CONVECTION IS 
FOUND WITHIN THIS FEATURE. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE COLD 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
TO THIS REGION NORTH OF 22N. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS COVERS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN. THEREFORE...DRY STABLE AIR IS OVER THE BASIN 
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONLY SCATTERED ISOLATED WEAK TO 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE CAUGHT ON THE RADAR NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 
74W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN 
ISLANDS. THIS AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
REMNANTS OF A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COMPUTER MODELS 
INDICATE THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION MAY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY 
EVENING. WIDE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING LIGHT TO 
MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 
SURFACE 1020 MB HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N71W. THIS 
FEATURE IF BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH 
OF 20N WEST OF 60W. A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED FROM 
23N50W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 20N58W TO PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED WEAK 
TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE. 
AN OCCLUDED LOW IS OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE 
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 36N52W. THE SOUTHERN TIP OF A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT RELATED TO THIS LOW ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
32N40W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 28N45W. SCATTER WEAK TO 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. 
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED 
FROM 30N46W SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N53W TO NEAR 22N60W. SCATTERED 
WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS 
TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AXIS FROM 
22N65W TO 28N50W. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 35W...DRY STABLE AIR 
DOMINATES ACROSS THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA