000
AXNT20 KNHC 191753
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT MON APR 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N30W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N 
BETWEEN 13W-19W...AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 37W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF 
OF MEXICO NEAR 28N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW 
TO 22N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. 
FURTHER S...AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N W OF 94W. ELSEWHERE...A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE NE GULF FROM THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO E TEXAS ALONG 30N83W 29N93W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 87W. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE NE 
GULF AND FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO BE 
OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT SOME 
SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF OFF THE S TEXAS COAST. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE HONDURAS 
ALONG 22N78W 16N83W. SURFACE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH ARE 5-10 KT 
FROM THE NW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS 10-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 
10N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW CENTER TO 
INCLUDE THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO MOVING N. FURTHER S...A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 12N56W 14N63W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 
80W. THE RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW E OF 80W IS THUS FROM 
THE S. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FROM 
PANAMA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC FROM 30N79W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. A 1011 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 28N69W MOVING NE. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
SW FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A 1020 MB HIGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS AND 
FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N21W TO 
25N25W 17N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E 
OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR 18N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 11N52W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 35W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA N OF 10N 
E OF 35W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE 
E WITH SHOWERS.         

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA