000 AXNT20 KNHC 191051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1040 UTC... ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W INTO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST BASIN SUPPORTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 24N95W. WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. FROM THE SAME LOW CENTER...A SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NEW ORLEANS AND ENTERS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT. A SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED OUT OF FLORIDA LEAVING LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN STATE SOUTH OF 27N. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THESE SURFACE FEATURES. THE LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL NEARLY REMAIN STATIONARY BEFORE SLOWLY STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MODERATE CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WEST OF 72W. THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN AS WELL. THIS ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. SIMILAR CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS FROM WESTERN VENEZUELA THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR GRENADA AND CONTINUES NORTHWEST TO NEAR 15N64W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH 31N70W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE CENTER ALONG 25N75W TO 25N71W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 35W TO 75W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 62W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N51W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N21W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N26W TO 20N34W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 16N41W 12N50W BECOMING A SHEAR LINE THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE ISLAND OF GRENADA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 TO 130 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF 22N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SHEARLINE. LOOK FOR THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA