000 AXNT20 KNHC 190551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0550 UTC... ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 1N30W 1N40W INTO BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF FROM MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS CONTINUING STRAIGHT SOUTHWARD TO 50 NM EAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO. A SECOND STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN FROM NEW ORLEANS CONTINUING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. FURTHERMORE A SURFACE 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS BRINGING CONVECTION TO MOST OF THE STATE SOUTH OF 30N. THE COMBINATION OF THESE THREE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES ARE BRINGING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THESE SURFACE FEATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY EARLY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OUT OF FLORIDA...THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY LATE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASIN. WITHIN IT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 80W CONTINUING TO NEAR 20N81W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF 75W. THIS ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 19N71W OVER HISPANIOLA TO 15N78W. SIMILAR CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS FROM COLOMBIA THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT TERMINATES SOUTH OF BARBADOS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH 32N70W TO INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 26N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE CENTER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS ALONG 26N77W TO 26N75W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 35W TO 75W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 65W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 26N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N23W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N26W 21N33W TO 16N41W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 13N50W TO SOUTH OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 TO 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA