000 AXNT20 KNHC 182353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN APR 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 2N17W 1N26W 1N43W INTO BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 4W-10W AND FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 18/2100 UTC...COMPLEX SCENARIO DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W GULF JUST S OF GALVESTON TEXAS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN...A SECOND COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC CROSSES FLORIDA S OF JACKSONVILLE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER TALLAHASSEE JUST INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER THEN EXTENDING NW TO A 1013 MB LOW N OF WACO TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE W GULF COLD FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N GULF COAST. ALSO AT THE SURFACE IS A 1008 MB LOW IN THE SE GULF NEAR 26N83W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E ACROSS S FLORIDA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER KEY WEST AND THE NW COAST OF CUBA TO 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W. HEAVY RAIN COVERS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 84W FROM 25N-29N INTO THE W ATLC. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THESE SURFACE FEATURES FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES THROUGH A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR AUSTIN TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N91W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE E PACIFIC REGION. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W CONTINUING S OVER HONDURAS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST E OF TRINIDAD DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN GIVING MOST OF THE AREA S TO SW UPPER FLOW. THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 71W AND COMBINING WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF E-SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE FROM 16N75W OVER W HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS. SIMILAR CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS FROM COLOMBIA THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT TERMINATES S OF BARBADOS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 18/2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH 32N74W TO INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA S OF JACKSONVILLE. HEAVY RAIN IS S OF THE FRONT TO 25N W OF 78W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 78W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH E OF TRINIDAD NEAR 10N58W TO BEYOND 32N56W COVERING THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM 45W-78W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO OVER THE W ATLC GIVING THE AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS S OF A WARM FRONT THAT AS OF 18/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO OVER GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 27N57W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 20W-45W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING SW ALONG 23N32W TO 18N41W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 12N54W TO S OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 21N. A SERIES OF SMALL MID LEVEL SWIRLS ARE NOTED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALLACE