000
AXNT20 KNHC 180550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT SUN APR 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0550 UTC...

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO 
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
FROM 22W TO 35W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS 
FEATURE IS BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EAST 
AND SOUTHEAST BASIN FROM EAST OF 86W AND SOUTH OF 28N. THE 
CONVECTION IS TRIGGERED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST 
ONE IS LOCATED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST 
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 
SECOND TROUGH IS ANALYZED 70 NM WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA 
FROM 24N TO 28N. THE FIRST TROUGH BRINGS A BROAD AREA OF 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SOUTH OF 25N FROM 82W TO 86W...WHILE THE 
SECOND TROUGH BRINGS SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF 86W AND SOUTH OF 28N INCLUDING THE 
STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE OF ENERGY APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST CORNER BASIN 
BRINGING CONVECTION OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF COAST...AFFECTING 
MOSTLY THE COAST TO 50 NM OFFSHORE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI SOUTHWARD 
TO 23N.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS SWINGING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST 
CORNER OF THE BASIN...SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
SOUTHWEST FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BELIZE. MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS ALSO PRODUCING SIMILAR AREAS OF 
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN CUBA...AND 50 NM 
SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS COVERED IN 
SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS USHERED 
IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
SUPPORTING A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N59W. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING 
FAIR WEATHER WEST OF 55W. HOWEVER...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN ATLC 
SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW NEAR 40N38W. THIS LOW BRINGS 
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N30W AND 
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N35W 20N40W 15N45W 14N50W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 22N...AND WITHIN 60 NM ON  
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 22N. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE 
HIGH IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 
29N16W...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER EAST OF 27W.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA