000 AXNT20 KNHC 162354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N20W 1N36W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 08W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 28W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N74W AND A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA RESULTING IN BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF 22N. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOCATE OVER THE W ATLC BY LATE SATURDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIRTS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND COASTAL PLAIN. ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW GULF...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W TO 25N96W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS COVER THE AREA FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 88W-96W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING NW FROM THIS AREA TO OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS S OF 29N. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS ALONG THE MEXICAN GULF COAST AND INTO THE PACIFIC REGION ALONG 94W. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND CROSSING THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK LOW OR FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SE GULF AND WESTERN CUBA...MERGING WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH BY LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 10N DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW IS MOST PRONOUNCED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 94W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N W OF 77W THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN SAINT LUCIA TO NEAR 13N62W WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING INCREASED VALUES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. PERSISTENT NE WINDS CONTINUE TO FEED ATLC MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA WELL NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRADES IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE THIS EVENING UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N74W THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND NW BAHAMAS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND SUPPORTS A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS NEAR 32N43W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N48W THEN CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 17N57W THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN SAINT LUCIA AND INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS NW OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 32N51W TO 29N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THIRDLY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAINLY REMAINS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BUT CLIPS A PORTION FROM 32N55W ALONG 31N TO BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUES MOVING SE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A 1016 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N33W AND EXTENDS SURFACE RIDGING AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN