000
AXNT20 KNHC 161737
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI APR 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 4N13W 3N34W 1N45W INTO SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N10W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR THE 
LIBERIA/IVORY COAST BORDER AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF 
LIBERIA N OF 5N TO THE BORDER OF SIERRA LEONE. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA 
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 10W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE GULF 
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND A 1025 MB 
HIGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE E GULF. THESE WINDS WILL 
BE DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD 
OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 19N94W 21N96W TO 23N97W. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS 
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 23N W OF 91W TO THE COAST 
OF MEXICO. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER 
W TEXAS WITH AND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 
HOUSTON. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 23N87W 
TO MEXICO NEAR 25N97W AND FROM 25N-29N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER 
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS W CUBA TO NEAR 27N90W. 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE 
DEEP TROPICAL ATLC AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN MOST WINDWARD ISLANDS TO OVER W CUBA AND INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. THIS IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW UPPER FLOW. THE 
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GIVING 
THE E CARIBBEAN NE SURFACE FLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS 
MOSTLY N OF 14N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-83W AND BETWEEN CENTRAL 
AMERICA TO OVER CUBA W OF 83W. A SURFACE LOW/TROUGH ARE E OF THE 
LESSER ANTILLES GIVING THE LESSER ANTILLES SCATTERED SHOWERS 
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER 
THIS AFTERNOON.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH 
ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND EXTENDING W TO OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N 
BETWEEN 42W-70W SUPPORTING A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES ROTATING INTO 
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N49W TO 23N52W 
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 20N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE NW 
EXTENDING FROM 31N49W TO 27N58W AND REPRESENTS A BOUNDARY OF 
DRIER TO THE N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N55W 
ALONG 29N61W TO 30N64W WHICH IS A WIND SHIFT PRECEDING A SECOND 
COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL N OF THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N AND IS BEING ENHANCED 
BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN 
UPPER HIGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 4N45W TO BEYOND 32N34W. 
BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW IN THE W 
TROPICAL ATLC ABOUT 255 NM W OF BARBUDA NEAR 18N57W WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO JUST E OF BARBADOS NEAR 13N59W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 25N45W 
TO JUST OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N62W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE