000 AXNT20 KNHC 152352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU APR 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N08W 2N20W 5N45W AND INTO FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-16W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 27W-33W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTH AMERICA COAST BETWEEN 51W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N80W. THIS IS RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG SE WINDS UP TO 30 KT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN WATERS THIS EVENING. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS NEAR 29N103W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 86W-95W. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO STRETCHES SE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SE CONUS. AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE PASSAGE SW TO NEAR 14N67W. BRISK NE WINDS WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE TO FEED ATLC MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N E OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. THIS PATTERN OF NE WINDS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS SETTLES WELL INTO THE W ATLC BY LATE SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 17N W OF 80W. ALOFT...MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 7N44W IN THE DEEP TROPICS NW TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W. THIS CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 74W THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N80W THAT IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER NE TO E WINDS W OF 62W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO EASTERN CUBA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IMPACTS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WELL NORTH OF THE LOW ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N51W AND CONTINUING ALONG 27N52W 23N57W TO THE LOW AND THROUGH THE GUADELOUPE PASSAGE NEAR 16N62W. A LARGE AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N-26N BETWEEN 47W-62W AND WITHIN 180 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 26N. THIS FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND LOCATE ROUGHLY ALONG 50W BY LATE FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 37W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 13N BETWEEN 20W-45W. THE NE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS IMPACTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF PORTUGAL NEAR 39N14W THAT SUPPORTS A 988 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N15W. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED N OF 27N E OF 25N...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOUND WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 7N FROM WESTERN AFRICA TO EASTERN VENEZUELA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN