000 AXNT20 KNHC 151100 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 2N20W 1N30W 1N43W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W/49W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1S52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO EASTERN VENEZUELA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...INCLUDING IN GUYANA...SURINAME...AND IN FRENCH GUIANA...FROM 5S TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING AT THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 49W AND 51W...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 53W AND 59W...AFFECTING GUYANA/SURINAME/FRENCH GUIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W. THE GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM MEXICO INTO TEXAS THAT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND...FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W... IN AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT GOES FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...SLIDING TOWARD CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...TO 27N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W AND 96W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF FIVE INCHES TO SEVEN INCHES WERE BEING MEASURED IN PUERTO RICO 24 HOURS AGO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THREE INCHES TO FOUR INCHES WERE BEING MEASURED IN SOME PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS AGO. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 210 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO 25N59W TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR ANTIGUA/BARBUDA TO WESTERN GUADELOUPE TO 13N63W. EVEN GUADELOUPE REPORTED 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN 3 INCHES AS LATE AS 15/0000 UTC. RAINSHOWERS EASILY ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 73W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE GEOGRAPHY AND OROGRAPHY WHERE YOU LIVE. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. IT APPEARS THAT THE BASE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA STILL REACHES 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS BERMUDA...POSSIBLY STILL REACHING 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N60W TO 27N67W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N56W TO 25N59W TO THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N61W...INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR ANTIGUA/BARBUDA TO WESTERN GUADELOUPE TO 13N63W. THE TROUGH REMAINS FROM AN ALREADY-WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 989 MB EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 37N16W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 40W. SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT