000 AXNT20 KNHC 142352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED APR 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N27W 3N42W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WEST AFRICA COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 07W-13W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 13W-21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 39N77W. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES AND PRESSES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF N OF 22N IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT THIS EVENING. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS SE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. INCREASED LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THE UPPER LEVEL AXIS ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 85W-95W. THIS AREA ALSO EXTENDS TO THE NW ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE TO MATAGORDA BAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH OVERALL DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR 18N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 81W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA. FARTHER EAST...A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF NE HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W IS GIVING THE NE CARIBBEAN LIGHT SE WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS NE OF A LINE FROM SAINT LUCIA TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO INDICATE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FOR THE PAST FEW OF DAYS WITH GUADELOUPE REPORTING 2.85 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION AND SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REPORTING 1.21 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS REGION OF SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TRADEWINDS AND SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 64W-75W AS CONVECTION MOVES N-NE OFF THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA COAST THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR BERMUDA AND EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 31N TO 78W. LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLC STATES BUILDS SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AND PERSIST W OF 60W THROUGH FRIDAY. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE TROUGHING DELINEATED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N60W TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. CONVERGENT SE WINDS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE WAY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 62W DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO 29N IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING A LARGE AREA FROM 16N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 48W-62W. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N68W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AT LEAST A FRONTAL TROUGH OR WEAK LOW POSITIONING ITSELF IN THE VICINITY OF 22N50W BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...A 990 MB LOW IS CENTERED SW OF PORTUGAL NEAR 37N16W AND EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW ALONG 32N13W ACROSS THE EASTERN CANARY ISLANDS TO 21N23W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N20W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN