000
AXNT20 KNHC 131033
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC. 

...THE ITCZ...
FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W 2N30W 2N42W...INTO 
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1N56W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W...FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 22W AND 25W...WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF 3N36W 4N37W 4N39W AND 2S42W 1S43W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
BRAZIL TO THE SOUTH OF 3N TO THE WEST OF 47W...FROM 6N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 46W AND 48W...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W.

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS...TO THE 
COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 
13N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA...
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TO 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS LARGELY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 
THE EAST OF 90W...WITH SOME OF IT REACHING THE WEST COAST OF 
FLORIDA.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N58W 14N60W 12N61W. SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. A SECOND SURFACE 
IS ALONG 20N62W 16N66W...PARTIALLY THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE 
AND PARTIALLY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. THE OVERALL SURFACE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA TOWARD 16N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EVENTUALLY CURVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AT LEAST REACHES 16N.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 31N64W TO 29N70W AND 28N77W.
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N76W TO 26N76W 22N74W INTO 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N72W IN SOUTH CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 30N BETWEEN
65W AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BAHAMAS. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC 
FLOW IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS CONNECTED TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS NEAR 33N23W.
A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N24W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE 
EAST OF 50W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CURVES FROM THE 
1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH 31N13W TO 27N16W 24N20W 
AND 21N29W. ONE TROUGH IS ABOUT 160 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
FRONT. A SECOND TROUGH IS ANOTHER 180 NM OF TO THE NORTHWEST OF 
THE FIRST TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

MT