000 AXNT20 KNHC 130603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC...AND METEOSAT-7 IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W 2N30W 3N44W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1N54W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL BRAZIL FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 23W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY TO 88W. THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN CUBA. THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF 88W IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 31N73W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CURVES ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS LARGELY FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 13N TO 16N. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. A SECOND SURFACE IS ALONG 20N62W 18N64W 16N65W...PARTIALLY THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND PARTIALLY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. THE OVERALL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 31N63W...AND THEN IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE FROM 31N63W TO 30N66W 30N70W AND 29N75W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 29N75W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST THAT IS NEAR 26N80W. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 80W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND REMNANT CLOUD LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO PASS THROUGH 31N73W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 23N78W TO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS CONNECTED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS NEAR 34N25W. A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N22W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY CURVES FROM THE 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...FROM 32N15W TO 29N16W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N16W TO 20N19W. ONE TROUGH IS ABOUT 160 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. A SECOND TROUGH IS ANOTHER NEARLY 240 NM OF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT