000 AXNT20 KNHC 121730 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SRN LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 1N20W 1S30W EQ40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W TO 1S60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 23W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 35W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 41W-51. DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG 26N80W 24N83W 23N87W. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 79W-81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FURTHER SOUTH TO 23N E OF 83W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD AND INTO THE ERN GULF SUPPORTS THE SURFACE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR TO THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NRN GULF. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE FAR WRN GULF ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 95W-100W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE NRN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 93W-96W. THESE AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE SUPPORTED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH OVER SRN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NEAR A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS E TEXAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IN UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE ISLAND FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 65W-68W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY ENHANCED BY CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 11N E OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N61W 29N65W 29N70W 28N74W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST ALONG 27N79W 26N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 69W-75W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 78W-82W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA AND S FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN UNITED STATES SEABOARD SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROVIDES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FURTHER SUPPORTING THE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OFF THE NRN COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 31N80W TO 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE AXIS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 36N46W DOMINATES THE AREA PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 35W-65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO NOTED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 19N58W 13N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 36N24W ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N18W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 26N21W 21N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG 32N20W 27N25W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 35N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON/RAMOS