000
AXNT20 KNHC 121048
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT MON APR 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 2N20W...1N30W TO 2N42W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 26W AND 38W...WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE BRAZIL COAST FROM 2S TO THE EQUATOR...AND FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 47W AND THE BRAZIL COAST.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A REMNANT
CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS AT THE SURFACE CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 25N AND 
26N...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N87W. SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 27N. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS LARGELY 
FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 11N TO 17N. SHOWERS
ARE NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 62W.
IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION ALREADY MAY BE REACHING 
THE ISLANDS FROM SAINT LUCIA TO ANTIGUA. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PASSING OVER THE BAHAMAS AT 
THIS TIME REACHES THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS 
AROUND THE TROUGH COVER THE AREAS FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
TO 21N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE 
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N62W TO 28N69W.
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 28N69W TO 
28N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN 
FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 25N AND 26N...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 24N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE 
BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 70W 
AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 16N TO 
30N. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT. DEEP LAYER 
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS CONNECTED TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS 
NEAR 35N26W. A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N24W. 
CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE 
NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 42W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY 
CURVES FROM THE 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...FROM 33N18W TO 
27N20W AND 23N29W. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 23N29W TO 
22N37W. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 140 NM TO 200 NM TO 
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO 30N. PRECIPITATION IS 
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT DIRECTLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE 
IMAGERY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT