000 AXNT20 KNHC 120542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOES-12 SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC AND METEOSAT-7 IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 2N20W...NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...2N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W... FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 1N44W...AND FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLOW BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 95W. THE REST OF THE FLOW CONTINUES TO BE UNAFFECTED BY ANYTHING ELSE. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO WHICH THE LAST MIATWDAT REFERS HAS EXITED THE REGION...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS AT THE SURFACE CUTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 25N AND 26N...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W.. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 27N. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS LARGELY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 11N TO 17N. SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TROUGH FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION ALREADY MAY BE REACHING THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE SAINT LUCIA TO GUADELOUPE. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PASSING OVER THE BAHAMAS AT THIS TIME REACHES THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. SHOWERS AROUND THE TROUGH COVER THE AREAS FROM 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N62W TO 28N69W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 28N69W TO 28N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN 25N AND 26N...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N86W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 52W/53W FROM 20N TO 30N. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EVIDENT. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS CONNECTED TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT IS NEAR 36N26W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N24W. CYCLONIC FLOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF 42W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY EMANATES FROM THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...FROM 32N20W TO 28N20W 24N24W AND 24N28W. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 24N28W TO 23N35W. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 140 NM TO 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT FROM 25N TO 30N. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT BUT NOT DIRECTLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT