000
AXNT20 KNHC 110000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 PM EDT SAT APR 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2350 UTC...

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2.5N6W 4N12W 2N20W 1.5N29W 
3.5N41W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. A LINE OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION CROSSES THE ITCZ FROM OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA 
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG 2N8.5W TO 2S5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 14W 
TO 22W. A CLUSTER OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS THE ITCZ 
AND BEYOND...FROM 5S TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE 
NORTHWEST BASIN...NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 92W...AND IT IS QUICKLY 
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...PROVIDING RAPID LIFTING 
OF MOIST AIR TO PRODUCE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. THIS FEATURE 
IS ALSO SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE 
WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 25.5N96W 
SOUTHWARD ALONG 24N96W TO 22N95W. THE SECOND TROUGH IS ANALYZED 
FROM 25N88W SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG 23N92W TO 20N93W. THE MAIN AREA 
OF CONVECTION COVERS FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. A 
SMALLER AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS 
THE LOUISIANA COAST TO 100 NM OFFSHORE. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR THE 
FLORIDA KEYS. LOOK FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS THE 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AIR ALOFT PREVENTING 
ANY DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. 
NEVERTHELESS...THE SOUTHERN TIP OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS 
PASSING NEAR THE FAR NORTHWEST BASIN...PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER 
WESTERN CUBA WEST OF 80W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING OVER 
THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST BASIN EAST OF 70E. THUS...ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE HISPANIOLA...AS WELL 
AS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO 
SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 
32N65W 27N71W 25N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE 
FRONT...FROM ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL WAVE SUPPORTING THIS FRONT. 
FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 38N45W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N28W TO 27N35W. 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30W. EXPECT THE TWO FRONTS TO CONTINUE TO 
MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA