000 AXNT20 KNHC 101712 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT APR 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S OF THE IVORY COAST NEAR 3N1W ALONG 4N6W 4N13W 1N29W 4N43W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N INTO AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-8W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 25W-40W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 10/1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N93W TO 19N92W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SW GULF FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 88W-97W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN TEXAS INTO THE WRN GULF IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ALSO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. THE ERN GULF IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UPON THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT NOW IN THE W ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF ALONG 85W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN SWLY FLOW IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE WRN GULF AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD ALONG WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN COLOMBIA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE ELY FLOW NEAR 17N81W...AS WELL AS ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT REACH THE ERN CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-16N E OF 62W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N68W CONTINUING SW ALONG 29N73W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 78W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT W OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 70W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 40N48W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 50W. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 32N34W TO 31N44W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON