000 AXNT20 KNHC 091045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W AND INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5N30W TO 1N46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N87W TO 19N94W CONTINUING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 18N95W TO 20N100W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 23N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 89W TO INLAND OVER E/CENTRAL MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING THE NE GULF TO 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NW GULF BRINGING CLEAR SKIES N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR EAST OF THE GULF REGION BY LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING 10 TO 20 KT NE TO E WINDS SOUTH OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO 72W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING E OF 72W...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY EAST OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 45W-61W. ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 80W. THIS CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-76W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N60W GIVING A MAJORITY OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N. ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE SE CONUS ATLC COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AXIS ALONG 32N26W TO 20N45W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE AZORES TO 32N28W THEN S-SW ALONG 25N31W TO 18N40W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 14N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 40W-60W AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 4N28W NE TO BEYOND 32N07W ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN