000 AXNT20 KNHC 090558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI APR 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 3N30W AND INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 24W-39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 39W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 09/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 24N90W TO 19N95W CONTINUING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 19N99W TO 21N102W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 25N. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 95W AND INLAND OVER E/CENTRAL MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH REACHING THE NE GULF TO 28N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NW GULF BRINGING CLEAR SKIES N OF 24N W OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE GULF BY LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING 10 TO 20 KT NE TO E WINDS SOUTH OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO 70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING E OF 70W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF 82W. THIS CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 35W-78W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N59W GIVING A MAJORITY OF THE AREA FAIR WEATHER N OF 20N. ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE SE CONUS IS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE W ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL AXIS ALONG 32N27W TO 19N46W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N28W S-SW ALONG 25N32W TO 15N50W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 13N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 20N WHILE S OF 20N SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 45W-62W AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 3N29W NE TO BEYOND 32N07W ACROSS NW AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN