000 AXNT20 KNHC 081046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU APR 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N23W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 45W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 08/0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SE LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 29N91W TO 25N94W AND INTO A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 89W. ALOFT...THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 29N FROM THE W ATLC...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 88W. SE TO S WINDS ARE NOTED IN SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS AN EARLIER 08/0242 UTC ASCAT PASS PRECEDING THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 KT ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED BY A FEW NW GULF OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS AND ARE FORECAST UP TO 30 KT WEST OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 90W THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS THIS MORNING. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL NE TO E WINDS AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 16N E OF 75W. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT IS ALSO PROVIDING INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT S OF 16N TO AID IN SUSTAINING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE W OF 72W ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR AND INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE W ATLC FROM CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS NE TO BEYOND BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS SW TO 21N38W BECOMING STATIONARY TO BARBADOS NEAR 13N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 4N37W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N11W AND SUPPORTS A WEAKENING EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 20N30W TO 32N20W. MAINLY NE TRADES UP TO 20 KT ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN