000 AXNT20 KNHC 080548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU APR 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N04W 4N19W 1N45W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 08/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS INTO THE NW GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SW LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N94W TO 25N96W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 91W. ALOFT...THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EAST OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 29N FROM THE W ATLC...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. SE TO S WINDS ARE NOTED IN SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS PRECEDING THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD...NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE FRONT TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL NE TO E WINDS AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 15N E OF 74W. A VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALSO PROVIDING INCREASED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT S OF 15N TO AID IN SUSTAINING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELSEWHERE W OF 72W ALOFT...NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY KEEPING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR AND INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N65W. GENERALLY FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER THE W ATLC FROM CUBA NE TO BEYOND BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N30W AND EXTENDS SW TO 23N37W BECOMING STATIONARY TO SOUTH OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 3N39W THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE CAPE VERDE AND CANARY ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N10W AND SUPPORTS AN EASTERN ATLC SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 15N40W TO 32N20W. MAINLY NE TRADES UP TO 20 KT ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC UNDER GENERALLY FAIR SKIES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN