000 AXNT20 KNHC 071051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED APR 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-34W AND ALSO FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 34W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ENTIRE GULF FROM A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 30N70W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOST OF THE GULF WITH SE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 KT AND OVERALL CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALONG THE SE U.S. SEABOARD BEYOND 32N77W THAT CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE THE NW GULF WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF A LINE FROM BARBUDA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 45W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N70W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLC. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N36W THAT SUPPORTS A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 35N40W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE OF THE LOW ALONG 31N35W TO 22N40W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY SW ALONG 17N50W TO SOUTH OF BARBADOS NEAR 12N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 20N AND WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 20N. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FOLLOWS WEST OF THE UPPER LOW WITH AXIS ALONG 33N46W TO 27N53W THAT WILL ROTATE SOUTH OF THE LOW AND AID IN MOVING THE FRONT NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 34N20W TO 20N35W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE EASTERN ATLC WITH NE WINDS AND OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN