000 AXNT20 KNHC 061052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0060 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1040 UTC... ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W...WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 1N30W 2N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND WITHIN 70 NM OFF THE COAST OF COTE D'IVOIRE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THEREFORE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST...FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO GALVESTON TEXAS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC SLOWLY STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. THEN...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SEEN OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THUS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. SAME CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 130 NM OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF 14N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE NEAR ITS CENTER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING THE FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1004 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 32N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N41W. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG 23N40W 18N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 34W...A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 32N20W...KEEPING FAIR WEATHER EAST OF 30W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA