000 AXNT20 KNHC 041047 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN APR 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N19W 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 12W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 41W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESIDE OVER THE GULF WITH SE WINDS OBSERVED UP TO 20 KT. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON GOES-EAST NIGHT CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND INLAND SE TEXAS WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND FOG POSSIBLE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N92W TO 20N97W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE W ATLC AND EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 30N PROVIDING THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTRODUCES ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE...ACROSS THE NW GULF. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WITH IT A BROAD RIBBON OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE ENHANCING THE SURFACE RIDGE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 14-18N AS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 14N TO 17N E OF 72W AND ALSO OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 13N TO 16N W OF 76W. THE TWO AREAS ARE A RESULT OF CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL NE WINDS AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET AND TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL W-NW FLOW DOMINATES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH GENERALLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR THAT CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N-NE TO OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLC STATES AND BEYOND TO SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA CANADA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N53W AND SUPPORTS A BROAD 1004 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N54W. OCCLUDED N OF 32N...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N43W ALONG 25N47W TO 20N54W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO MARTINIQUE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD ALONG 31N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF THE AZORES NEAR 39N19W ALONG 32N23W TO 10N50W. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 34W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES DOMINATE S OF 20N ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN