000
AXNT20 KNHC 031049
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT SAT APR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 42W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 3N16W TO 3N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE 
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 20W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD 
ENCOMPASSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF 
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE GULF IS LOCATED ON THE SW PERIPHERY 
OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND IS EXPERIENCING SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED 
60 TO 90 NM INLAND FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NW GULF WATERS LATER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING 
AS SURFACE RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL OVER THE SE CONUS AND 
NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS 
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM EASTERN NORTH 
CAROLINA THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER 
RIDGE AXES ARE PROVIDING THE CENTRAL AND NE GULF WITH INCREASED 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N56W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO 
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT CROSSING GUADELOUPE EXTENDING WESTWARD AS A DISSIPATING 
FRONT TO NEAR 16N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 14N E OF 
77W ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AS 
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO 
THE EAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE 
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
DRY AND STABLE W TO NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 85W. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR 
SKIES OVER THE SE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD FROM THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA N-NE TO THE MID-ATLC STATES AND BEYOND NOVA SCOTIA 
CANADA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THIS MORNING WITH 
LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. 
FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N56W AND 
SUPPORTS A BROAD 1002 MB LOW NEAR 31N56W. LARGELY OCCLUDED N OF 
30N...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N49W ALONG 24N50W TO 
GUADELOUPE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW 
CENTER WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM EAST OF THE 
COLD FRONT N OF 23N AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD 
FRONT S OF 23N. STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE LOCATED IN THE 
WEST AND NW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW AS SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 56W-73W. OVER 
THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 
THE MADEIRA ISLANDS TO OVER THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 16N40W. 
HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE 
FOCUSED ALONG 31N32W 28N29W 24N31W. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR 
THIS SURFACE TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND THUS CONTINUES TO 
WEAKEN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 25N-33N 
BETWEEN 25W-31W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES WITH 
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADES S OF 20N ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN