000 AXNT20 KNHC 030555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT APR 03 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N30W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 7W-12W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 35W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD ENCOMPASSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE GULF IS LOCATED ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND IS EXPERIENCING SE WINDS UP TO 20 KT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLIP THE NW GULF WATERS LATER TODAY WHILE WEAKENING AS SURFACE RIDGING REGAINS HOLD OVER THE SE CONUS AND NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...THE COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXES ARE PROVIDING THE WESTERN GULF WITH INCREASED SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDINESS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N57W OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CROSSING ANTIGUA EXTENDING W TO NEAR 16N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 86W. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES OVER THE SE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N-NE TO THE MID-ATLC STATES AND BEYOND NOVA SCOTIA CANADA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHT NE TO E WINDS UP TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS CENTERED NEAR 32N57W AND SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 30N56W. LARGELY OCCLUDED N OF 30N...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 31N49W ALONG 22N53W TO ANTIGUA WITHIN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 24N. STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW AS SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W-74W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N23W. A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE FOCUSED NEAR A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N29W. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS LOW HAS MOVED EASTWARD AND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 25W-34W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES WITH FRESH TO MODERATE NE TO E TRADES S OF 20N ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN