000 AXNT20 KNHC 021055 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI APR 02 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N22W 2N42W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 18W-31W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NE BRAZIL COAST N OF THE EQUATOR TO 4N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 02/0900 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W WITH E TO SE SURFACE FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS SUPPORTS THE SURFACE HIGH WITH MAINLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST GULF AND IS CENTERED WEST OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N84W. THIS FEATURE IS INDUCING A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N89W TO 19N92W AND LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OR PRECIPITATION. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...STRONG SE RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD TO 21N62W...NORTH OF THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MONA PASSAGE AND EXTENDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA COAST FROM 18N69W TO 17N76W. CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL NE WINDS COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 66W-76W...INCLUDING MOST OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADES WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NIGHT CHANNEL GOES-EAST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A 1001 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N54W...CONTINUING S-SW ALONG 25N57W 20N63W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 24N57W TO NEAR ANGUILLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALSO AS THE LOW DRIFTS SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 62W-72W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NE FLORIDA CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD CREATING AN INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WATERS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NE ATLC WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N27W AND A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 28W TO 18N. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N31W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W-30W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PRESSES AGAINST A QUASI-STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N24W RESULTING IN INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT WITHIN 300 NM NE QUADRANT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 50W...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES WITH LIGHT NE TO E TRADES S OF 20N ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN