000 AXNT20 KNHC 312329 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAR 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 3N20W 2N30W EQ40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL AT 1S53W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 7W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 15W-19W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS...ONE S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE SECOND W OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE REACHING 15 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE W GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE W GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLC BARELY ENTERS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 20N74W. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER INTO THE N CARIBBEAN ACROSS JAMAICA AND E CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N81W TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR 10N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 12N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED SE OF MAINE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NE UNITED STATED COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W ALONG 27N64W 22N69W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 53W-60W. FARTHER E...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 28N43W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING AROUND THE LOW ALONG 27N22W 25N43W 24N48W 26N53W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS THE E...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...EXTENDING ALONG 31N38W 25N38W 21N43W 19N51W CONTINUING AS A SHEAR LINE TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE AND TROUGH S OF 25N...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 29N382W WITH AXIS ALONG 38W. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 18W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 22N EXTENDING TO THE E CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON