000
AXNT20 KNHC 311029
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT WED MAR 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N6W 3N21W 3N46W TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 
9W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 10W-23W 
INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA AND FROM 2N-4N W OF 48W TO 
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH 
NEAR 27N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC 
ACROSS NE FLORIDA ALONG 26N87W TO NE MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THE 
UPPER LEVELS LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT 
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SE GULF. THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN 
ACROSS THE GULF THIS MORNING. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 
TO NEAR 19N75W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY W OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE E OF THIS LINE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 72W TO 
INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE OVER HAITI AND E CUBA AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE W ATLC TO 75 INCLUDING MOST OF THE 
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 
32N64W EXTENDING ALONG 26N66W OVER TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS 
FRONT IS N OF 30N WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OFF THE 
MID-ATLC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/E CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 
BEYOND 32N56W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 50W 
AND THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL 
ATLC NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING ALONG 25N39W TO 20N52W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 
31W-38W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N FROM 38W-42W. THE UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 32W-50W WITH 
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
CENTRAL AND E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 63W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB 
HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A 
THIN LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR AND POSSIBLE DUST COVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLC FROM 10N-20N APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE