000
AXNT20 KNHC 310539
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT WED MAR 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 3N19W 2N31W 2N46W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E 
OF 9W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 10W-20W 
AND FROM 1N-5N W OF 47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH 
NEAR 26N91W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC 
ACROSS NE FLORIDA ALONG 26N90W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. THIS 
UPPER LEVEL REGIME LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS NOTED ON 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR 
ALOFT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR S GULF. THUS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE 
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO 
ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN 
EXTENDING OVER E TIP OF CUBA AND THE W TIP OF JAMAICA ALONG 
17N81W TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. SW UPPER FLOW IS W OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE E OF THE 
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N FROM 75W-82W AND THE N 
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-79W MAINLY OVER THE ISLANDS OF 
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO OVER THE FAR W ATLC TO OVER THE N BAHAMA 
ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR BERMUDA EXTENDING 
ALONG 26N68W OVER TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE E TIP OF CUBA WHERE 
IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. THE 
UPPER TROUGH IS MOSTLY N OF 30N WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST 
OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/E 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 
BEYOND 32N57W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 52W 
AND THE FRONT. A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 22N 
BETWEEN 50W-65W. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC 
NEAR 32N37W EXTENDING ALONG 26N41W TO 23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES A 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 35W-38W. 
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS N OF 18N BETWEEN 
33W-50W WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 31N43W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 
25N AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE