000 AXNT20 KNHC 302342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2215 UTC... ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 3N40W AND INTO NE BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR AND 53W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 8W-10W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 41W-51W. STRONGER CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NE BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 26N90W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF FROM N FLORIDA CONTINUING TO NRN MEXICO. MAINLY SW-W FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA S OF THIS UPPER TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING SKIES CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE-E OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE W GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES E CUBA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER ALONG 21N76W 18N81W 14N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. STATION REPORTS FROM HONDURAS ALSO INDICATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 86W-88W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC. HOWEVER...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN UNDER GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE FAR SW BASIN OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA WITH STRONGER SHOWERS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 8N74W. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TOMORROW AND THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NE UNITED STATED COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N BETWEEN 59W-67W. GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT TO 67W FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MOVING N OF THE AREA. FARTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA E OF NEWFOUNDLAND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W CONTINUING OVER THE ATLC ALONG 60W. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN OCCLUDED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 33N45W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N37W ALONG 26N41W 22N46W BECOMING A DISSIPATING FRONT TO NEAR 20N53W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND N OF 27N BETWEEN 36W-38W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 33N42W WITH AXIS ALONG 42W. ACROSS THE E ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 20W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 22N EXTENDING TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON