000
AXNT20 KNHC 301749
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N21W 3N28W 2N46W TO NE BRAZIL 
NEAR 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 
09W-16W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 36W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A 
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N92W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS OVER THE NW GULF AND 
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH MAINLY W-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW INDICATED 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME LACKS ANY 
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS 
THEREFORE RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE E-NE BY MID-WEEK WITH 
INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF WEDNESDAY AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW 
GULF WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND BECOMES STATIONARY 
AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 21N77W 19N81W TO THE 
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 19N AND WITHIN 120 NM 
W OF THE FRONT S OF 19N. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE 
LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AS CAPTURED BY EARLIER MORNING WINDSAT AND ASCAT 
PASSES. ALOFT...WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESIDES E OF 
82W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND 
CLEAR SKIES AT THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS POSITIONED OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA 
ALONG THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING ALONG 25N72W TO THE SE 
BAHAMAS THEN CROSSING EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 
24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING FARTHER EAST AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT TO 62W. S OF 24N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THE SE BAHAMAS AND CROSSES EASTERN CUBA. 
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 47W-63W. EAST OF THE SURFACE 
RIDGE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W 
AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 28N40W TO 21N50W WHERE THE FRONT 
DISSIPATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N WITH LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR 
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
34N44W AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE LOW 
ALONG 44W SOUTHWARD TO 16N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 18N45W TO 
BEYOND 32N25W.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN